On 20 January 2025 Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States of America. His inaugural speech, met with fervent applause from his supporters, evoked reflections on the categorization of modes of rule as discussed by Greek philosophers like Aristotle and Plato. These classifications include gerontocracy, meritocracy, kleptocracy, aristocracy, and kakistocracy. Some observers and critics of Trump might be inclined to categorize his leadership as a kakistocracy—rule by the worst.
Given Trump’s ability to mobilize large and enthusiastic crowds, I am prompted to propose a new term—mobstocracy—to describe his rule, signifying governance by the influence of a fervent mob. Interestingly, in classical Greek thought, democracy itself was often viewed as “rule by an unruly mob.”
Trump’s dramatic return to the White House is likely to amplify the dynamics of globalization, fragmentation, and geopolitics that were hallmarks of his first term (2017–2021). These phenomena may now intensify, shaping the global landscape in significant and potentially disruptive ways.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics encompasses the interplay between geography, power dynamics, and the interactions among countries and global entities. It examines how geographical factors—such as location, resources, and physical terrain—influence political, economic, and military power, often resulting in shifts or disruptions in international relations.
A recent and notable geopolitical development is the return of Donald Trump to the White House. This has already led to significant policy decisions, such as the withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement, echoing the disruptive patterns seen during his previous tenure.
Other historical and contemporary examples of geopolitical events include:
- The Cold War (1947–1991): A prolonged ideological and geopolitical standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union.
- Middle East Conflicts: Persistent tensions and wars influenced by energy resources, religious divides, and external interventions.
- South China Sea Disputes: Competing territorial claims and militarization by China and neighboring countries, impacting regional and global security.
- The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: An ongoing war with profound implications for European security, energy dynamics, and global power structures.
Geopolitics remains a crucial lens for understanding the forces shaping global stability and the evolving balance of power in the 21st century.
Fragmentation
Fragmentation occurs when global economic activity becomes divided into distinct blocs or regions, often shaped by geopolitical dynamics. This division disrupts the interconnected nature of global markets, creating barriers to trade, investment, and cooperation.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House is expected to exacerbate this trend. His administration’s policies have already escalated the US-China trade war, introducing new tariffs and trade restrictions that further divide the global economic landscape. Similar measures have been extended to other key trading partners, intensifying global economic fragmentation.
Historical and contemporary examples of fragmentation include:
- Brexit: The United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union created new trade barriers and regulatory disparities, fragmenting the previously unified European market.
- COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic severely disrupted global supply chains, leading to shortages of goods and materials. This prompted countries to prioritize domestic production and reduce reliance on international trade, further fracturing global economic integration.
As countries navigate these challenges, fragmentation highlights the increasing tension between globalization and the resurgence of economic nationalism and regionalism.
Deglobalization
Deglobalization refers to the process of reducing global interdependence and fostering greater national self-reliance, often driven by trade tensions, protectionist policies, and a push for economic sovereignty. This phenomenon challenges the interconnectedness that has defined the modern global economy.
The return of Donald Trump to a second term as President of the United States has accelerated this trend. Key examples include the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as the implementation of highly restrictive immigration policies. His administration has also amplified trade tensions with China, escalating tariffs and trade barriers as both nations strive to reduce economic dependence on each other.
Similarly, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) was motivated by a desire to regain national sovereignty and control over immigration and trade policies. This move has created new trade barriers and regulatory divergences, reinforcing the shift toward deglobalization.
These actions highlight a broader movement where countries prioritize national interests over global integration, potentially leading to economic fragmentation, strained international relations, and reduced collective capacity to address global challenges such as climate change and public health crises.
Navigating the trilemma
The intertwined phenomena of deglobalization, fragmentation, and geopolitics create a complex trilemma with profound implications for global trade, investment, and economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has observed that these forces, driven by geopolitical events, economic policies, and global crises, contribute to a more divided and less integrated global economy.[1]
Fragmentation often arises from geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies, while deglobalization reflects a retreat from interconnectedness toward national self-reliance. These dynamics exacerbate one another, creating challenges for policymakers and businesses alike. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency underscores the evolving nature of geopolitics, with renewed tensions and policy shifts impacting international relations and economic systems.
To address this trilemma, the IMF urges policymakers and business leaders to:
- Build economic resilience: Strengthen domestic economies to withstand global shocks while fostering adaptive strategies to manage external disruptions.[2]
- Promote international cooperation: Engage in dialogue and collaboration to address shared challenges, such as climate change, public health, and economic inequality.[3]
- Understand the geopolitical landscape: Analyze shifting global power dynamics to anticipate and navigate emerging risks effectively.[4]
Geopolitics is inherently dynamic and continues to evolve as power structures shift and new challenges emerge. For policymakers, a deep understanding of the geopolitical environment is essential to shape strategies, manage international relations, and anticipate future global trends. Successfully navigating this trilemma requires a balance between national interests and collective global action, ensuring sustainable and inclusive development.
[1] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/05/geopolitics-and-fragmentation-emerge-as-serious-financial-stability-threats and https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2023/01/11/Geo-Economic-Fragmentation-and-the-Future-of-Multilateralism-527266
[2] https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/01/13/sp-integrating-the-eu-energy-market-to-foster-growth-and-resilience
[3] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025
[4] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2023/01/11/Geo-Economic-Fragmentation-and-the-Future-of-Multilateralism-527266
